'Voters are looking afresh at Gordon Brown' - says Prof John Curtice in the Independent

How things change;

One of the first rules of election campaigns is that polls that secure the biggest headlines are not always the best guide. This is especially true when the headlines in question focus on the lead one party has over another, a figure that is especially vulnerable to fluctuation from poll to poll.

The YouGov poll in The Sunday Times suggesting that the Conservative lead was down to two points grabbed the headlines. But there was doubt about whether it might just represent random variation around the 5-6 point lead suggested by other recent polls. Now our latest ComRes poll, conducted over the weekend, indicates that the lead is indeed still five points.

That said, there is no doubt there has been a sea change in the parties' prospects over the past month. Until almost the end of January, the Tories consistently enjoyed a double-digit lead of around 12 points. Despite the unfavourable way in which the electoral system treats his party, that seemed sufficient to put David Cameron on course for an overall majority.

But then towards the end of January it was announced that Britain was out of recession. The initial 0.1 per cent growth figure, revised to 0.3 per cent last week, seems to have sparked off a gradual narrowing of the Tory lead. Immediately the Tories' average advantage slipped to nine points.

Subsequently, after Gordon Brown showed his softer side in a TV interview with Piers Morgan, the lead narrowed, to seven points.....

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