Charter 2010 takes no view as to the desirability or otherwise of a hung parliament. We simply want the politicians to plan for the possibility; and, if it materialises, to accept the voters’ verdict and negotiate responsibly for a multi-party supported government - not try to wangle their way into sole power if that is clearly what the electors have NOT voted for.A remarkable ICM poll for The Guardian gives us some strong indications as to the voters’ preferences at the upcoming election.
ICM asked: "In the General Election, it is possible that no party will win an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons. Putting aside your own party preference, do you think it would be better for Britain if..?
Overall, nearly half of those polled (44 per cent) said they preferred a hung parliament; fewer than one in five (18 per cent) preferred a Labour majority and just over a quarter (29 per cent) the Conservatives to win.
# The Labour Party got a strong majority on its own# The Conservative Party got a strong majority on its own
# There was a hung parliament, with the government having to work with smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats
The strongest support for a hung parliament came from those married and with children (50 per cent), living in the North (48 per cent), women (47 per cent) and the under 65s (45-50 per cent).
So far as voting intention was concerned, not surprisingly, three quarters (74 per cent) of Liberal Democrat voters preferred a hung parliament. But an astonishing four in ten of Labour supporters preferred a hung parliament; as did over a quarter (26 per cent) of those who said they intended to vote Conservative.
On these figures, if the "Hung Parliament Party" were running in the election under our first-past-the-post system it would almost certainly win!
More seriously, the widely held assumptions of some politicians and journalists that Britain is by nature a country that prefers one-party rule and eschews coalitions are blown out of the water by this poll. Not for the first time, the people are ahead of the Westminster village.
Full details of the ICM poll can be found here.
Sunday, 21 March 2010
A hung parliament - best for UK?
Monday, 15 March 2010
In praise of fixed-term parliaments
The Sunday Times has joined its sister paper The Times in coming out in favour of fixed terms. In its editorial accepting that presidential-style TV debates are likely to become a permanent feature of election campaigns, the Sunday Times says: "Most of all, we should import from America fixed four-year terms, removing a key element of uncertainty from the British system. The prime minister’s prerogative of choosing the election date is an anachronism."A fixed term is, in Charter 2010’s view, a vital component of establishing a stable, multi-party government after a hung election. Taken together with Tory commentator Matthew Parris’s admission in his Times column that, if the Tories are offered a deal by the Lib Dems and a condition attached is a fixed term, arguments against accepting such an arrangement do not "spring easily to mind", this constitutes the most significant evidence yet that the Conservatives, at long last, are coming to realise that a multi-party supported government for a fixed term of four years would be the desirable (and democratic) outcome of a hung parliament in which no one party has a workable majority.
Who Governs? Forming a coalition or a minority government in the event of a hung Parliament - Publications
The Hansard Society and the Study of Parliament Group have published a new pamphlet on hung Parliaments on Thursday March 11. Who Governs? Forming a coalition or a minority government in the event of a hung Parliament examines what will happen in the event of an uncertain general election result this year – with particular focus on the implications for Parliament, but also looking at issues such as financial markets, how long it will take to resolve and the role of the Queen. Key questions include:
- Who wins – the party with the most seats or the most votes?
- What does this mean for formal coalitions or informal agreements with other parties?
- What can a ‘caretaker’ Prime Minister do? What can he not do?
- What is the role of the Queen?
- How long does it all take to get sorted out?
- What effect will the financial markets have on the process?
- Would the Wright Committee reforms help or hinder the process?
- Does a hung Parliament mean weak government?
- How will MPs balance Westminster and constituency duties in a hung Parliament?
- What effect would a hung Parliament have on the House of Lords and the Salisbury Convention?
Click on link to download paper
Pollwatch | Charter 2010
A Lib-Lab coalition is an only chance of a civilized political system for Hexham and the UK
Clegg and no commitment in a hung parliament
Nick Clegg was forced to quell dissent from within his own ranks and fight off attempts by Labour and the Tories to woo his party yesterday, as he pleaded with voters to take a "once-in-a-generation opportunity for real change" at the next election.
Senior figures from the Government and the Tory frontbench had already made pitches for the Liberal Democrat leader's support in the event of a hung parliament by the time Mr Clegg gave his closing speech to his party's spring conference.
But in a defiant message to his political rivals, he said both major parties were "closer to confusion" than to his values. Mr Clegg, who delivered his address despite suffering from a sore throat, reserved his strongest attack for the Tories. He argued that David Cameron's team was behaving like a "protection racket" in warning voters that Britain's credit worthiness would plummet in the markets if they did not deliver a clear Conservative victory.
A Lib-Lab coalition looks like the nearest thing to a decent government
Click HERE to read full article
-0-
Tuesday, 2 March 2010
'Voters are looking afresh at Gordon Brown' - says Prof John Curtice in the Independent
One of the first rules of election campaigns is that polls that secure the biggest headlines are not always the best guide. This is especially true when the headlines in question focus on the lead one party has over another, a figure that is especially vulnerable to fluctuation from poll to poll.The YouGov poll in The Sunday Times suggesting that the Conservative lead was down to two points grabbed the headlines. But there was doubt about whether it might just represent random variation around the 5-6 point lead suggested by other recent polls. Now our latest ComRes poll, conducted over the weekend, indicates that the lead is indeed still five points.That said, there is no doubt there has been a sea change in the parties' prospects over the past month. Until almost the end of January, the Tories consistently enjoyed a double-digit lead of around 12 points. Despite the unfavourable way in which the electoral system treats his party, that seemed sufficient to put David Cameron on course for an overall majority.But then towards the end of January it was announced that Britain was out of recession. The initial 0.1 per cent growth figure, revised to 0.3 per cent last week, seems to have sparked off a gradual narrowing of the Tory lead. Immediately the Tories' average advantage slipped to nine points.Subsequently, after Gordon Brown showed his softer side in a TV interview with Piers Morgan, the lead narrowed, to seven points.....
