Will these marginals swing the UK's 2010 General Election?

Marginal seats for main parties

Following the Boundary Commissions' reports recommending changes to seats in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales various estimates have been made of the electoral effect of the changes in each constituency. The most respected of these estimates is The Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies compiled and edited by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, which was published in February 2007.^[169] The website UKPollingReport has also compiled estimates.^[170] The various estimates differ in detail.

Arising out of those estimates, lists of the most marginal seats have been compiled. They are the seats where the party needs to overturn the lowest percentage majority to win the seat. These are not necessarily the seats where it will be easiest to do so, or the only seats that the party will actually be targeting at the next election. A complete list for each party is currently being compiled in party order starting with the Conservatives which can be found here, with the top 50 Labour here, top 50 Liberal Democrat and top 25 Plaid and SNP targets to follow.

N.B. The "Winning Party" is notional (except in the case of Scottish constituencies and Islington South and Finsbury), calculated on the Boundary Commission changes made to the seat, and may not be the same as the party that won the seat in the 2005 general election.

[edit] Labour targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party		Swing to gain
1	Sittingbourne and Sheppey		Conservative	0.03
2	Clwyd West		Conservative	0.07
3	Hemel Hempstead		Conservative	0.18
4	Kettering		Conservative	0.20
5	North East Somerset		Conservative	0.23
6	Finchley and Golders Green		Conservative	0.35
7	Shipley		Conservative	0.48
8	Dundee East		SNP	0.48
9	Rochester and Strood		Conservative	0.57
10	Wellingborough		Conservative	0.62

[edit] Conservative targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party		Swing to gain
1	Gillingham and Rainham		Labour	0.021
2	Crawley		Labour	0.04
3	York Outer		Liberal Democrat	0.22
4	Romsey and Southampton North		Liberal Democrat	0.23
5	Harlow		Labour	0.29
6	Cheltenham		Liberal Democrat	0.33
7	Croydon Central		Labour	0.36
8	Portsmouth North		Labour	0.38
9	Battersea		Labour	0.41
10	Hove		Labour	0.50

[edit] Liberal Democrat targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party		Swing to gain
1	Guildford		Conservative	0.09
2	Solihull		Conservative	0.12
3	Rochdale		Labour	0.17
4	Oxford East		Labour	0.37
5	Edinburgh South		Labour	0.47
6	Hampstead and Kilburn		Labour	0.57
7	Eastbourne		Conservative	0.70
8	Islington South and Finsbury		Labour	0.78
9	Watford		Labour	1.17
10	Ealing Central and Acton		Labour	1.37

[edit] Scottish National Party targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party		Swing to gain
1	Ochil and South Perthshire		Labour	0.74
2	Dundee West		Labour	7.29

[edit] Plaid Cymru targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party		Swing to gain
1	Ceredigion		Liberal Democrat	0.31
2	Arfon		Labour	0.91
3	Ynys Môn		Labour	1.75

[edit] Northern Irish targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party		Challenging party		Swing to gain
1	Belfast South		Social Democratic and Labour		Democratic Unionist	1.93
2	South Antrim		Democratic Unionist		Ulster Unionist	4.54
3	Fermanagh and South Tyrone		Sinn Féin		Democratic Unionist	4.70
4	Belfast South		Social Democratic and Labour		Ulster Unionist	4.80

[edit] Notes

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